Fantasy football owners everywhere are trying to figure out how to cope with the loss of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
An early pick in almost any scoring format, Rodgers was highly coveted for his ability to score touchdowns, rack up yardage and, up until this point, play every game. After the two-time NFL MVP suffered a likely-season-ending collarbone injury, owners are scrambling to find a replacement to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The question is what approach owners should take: Find a new QB on waivers or attempt to stream a new starter each week through the end of the season?
Among the 15 starters likely to be available on the waiver wire (owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues), Tyrod Taylor of the Buffalo Bills appears to be the best bet for a season-long replacement.
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The Bills already had their bye week and face, by far, the easiest slate of games for the rest of the season, per Sharp Football Stats, especially towards the last few weeks of 2017, which is when most leagues have playoff and championship games.
Buffalo’s next two games are against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Oakland Raiders, two teams that allow the third and second-most adjusted net yards per attempt, respectively, this season. Adjusted net yards per attempt is similar to passer rating in that it gives a passer a bonus for completing passes and throwing touchdowns but it also penalizes a player for sacks in addition to interceptions, giving us a better idea of a quarterback’s overall play. To give you a better idea of how easy it could be for Taylor to produce, consider the opponents on the Bills remaining schedule have yielded almost 2,400 adjusted net yards more than the average team, nearly twice that of the Denver Broncos’ remaining opponents (1,102), who have the second easiest schedule in terms of pass defenses faced.
The Bills also get to face the New England Patriots twice, including the all-important Week 16, a championship matchup in most fantasy leagues. The Patriots pass defense is horrid, allowing a league-high 8.0 adjusted net yards per pass and 104.4 passer rating against. Since the merger of 1970, just nine teams have allowed a passer rating against as high for an entire season.
Instead of selecting just one waiver QB to be your starter for the rest of the season, you could also scour the waiver wire each week to find a starter set to face a weak defense, better known as “streaming” for the uninitiated. On its face, this approach can pay huge dividends.
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If you assumed all the quarterbacks ranked in the top 20 in consensus preseason rankings were drafted, leaving what we’ll refer to as our Preseason Waiver Pool, picking the top passer off the waiver wire each week would have amassed you 174 fantasy points through Week 6 this season, 40 more than using either Deshaun Watson or Alex Smith, the top fantasy football passers this season, on their own. In theory that makes streaming the clear choice, but this is using the benefit of hindsight and discounts two pivotal factors.
The first is gambling that a passer available now will be available later. If a future quarterback candidate has a good game, or another star player gets injured, before you need to use the proper free agent QB, there is no guarantee he will be available when you need him. That leaves you looking for an alternative from a pool that is not deep. A perfect example of how this can go awry is Smith. He was owned in one out of every six leagues (16 percent) when the season started and was quickly added to rosters in Week 2 (64.2 percent owned). Now he is owned in 9 out of every 10 leagues.
The second challenge for streaming quarterbacks is guessing right on the QB who’s going to blow up each week. Using the earlier example of our Preseason Waiver Pool, the average fantasy production of the remaining waiver wire candidates — meaning we’re eliminating the QB from our preseason waiver pool who scored the most points each week from Week 1 to 6 — was a mere 64 points. That is equivalent to having the 26th best passer in 2017. And that’s not going to win you a title.
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Another mitigating factor, the best quarterbacks from our preseason pool — guys like Smith and Watson — are definitely on rosters and were likely snapped up early. Smith and Watson accounted for four of the top six weekly performances since the start of the season. They’re gone, so your margin for error is much smaller. The top QBs in Weeks 2 and 3? Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum. No one was advocating for a big week from either prior to their big games, so you likely weren’t going to stream them unless you’re related to them.
So in theory, streaming is a great approach. But there are definitely complicating factors.
If you’re still a believer in streaming, or the remaining waiver wire candidates really aren’t that strong in your league, here’s a week-to-week guide on your best bets from our pool of QBs owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues:
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| Week | Quarterback | Opponent | Pass defense rank of opponent |
| 7 | Tyrod Taylor | vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30 |
| 8 | Tyrod Taylor | vs. Oakland Raiders | 31 |
| 9 | Jay Cutler | vs. Oakland Raiders | 31 |
| 10 | Trevor Siemian | vs. New England Patriots | 32 |
| 11 | Jay Cutler | vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30 |
| 12 | Jay Cutler | at New England Patriots | 32 |
| 13 | Tyrod Taylor | vs. New England Patriots | 32 |
| 14 | Jay Cutler | vs. New England Patriots | 32 |
| 15 | Trevor Siemian | at Indianapolis Colts | 29 |
| 16 | Tyrod Taylor | at New England Patriots | 32 |
| 17 | Josh McCown | at New England Patriots | 32 |
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